New Delhi:
There was such a storm in the US stock market that the whole world was shocked. In a single day, $ 4 trillion i.e. 340 lakh crore rupees were found in dust, and there was chaos on Wall Street. The terrible decline of 8.6% in S&P 500 blown the senses of investors, while Nasdaq fell down 4%. This disadvantage was so big that the entire economies of Australia, South Korea and Mexico would look dwarf in front of it. Was it just a shock of one day, or is the world’s most powerful economy trapped in the dark vortex of recession?
Experts believe that President Donald Trump’s tariff bomb and his mysterious statements have put ghee in the fire. From Tesla to Apple, veteran companies came to the knees, and there was panic among the investors. Let us know how big this loss in the American economy is and what will be its effect, has the economic recession started in America?
Loss of $ 4 trillion a day: What happened?
According to news agency Reuters, S&P 500 was the biggest decline of this year. The main reason for this decline is considered to be the business policies of President Trump. Trump had recently announced a heavy duty (tariff) on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, after which 25% tariff was also threatened on the European Union. These policies created uncertainty among investors, due to which selling started in the market. Large technical companies like Tesla suffered a loss of $ 125 billion in a single day, while the shares of Apple and Nvidia also saw a decline of 5%. Companies from other areas like Delta Airlines also suffered major losses.
Constant loss in US economy
Many warning signs have appeared in the US economy in the last few months. In February 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the economic approach of consumers, fell to 98.3 with a decline of seven points. This level is considered a sign of recession when it comes below 80. According to a newsweek report, the GDPNOW model of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, which estimates economic growth in real -time, was indicating a decline of -2.8% for the first quarter of 2025 in early March. This was a major upset with an estimate of 2.5% increase in the previous month.
According to a Fox Business report, in January 2025, the Trump administration deported around 38,000 illegal migrants, which could also affect the economy. Economist Harry Dent warned that this step could reduce the GDP (GDP) by 1–1.5%, which can take the recession closer. Along with this, Trump’s tariff policies have increased market volatility in the last few weeks.
What do economists say?
Economists’ views on the possibility of recession in the US economy are divided. According to a CNBC report, the Chief Economist Holgar Schmiding of Berenberg Bank believes that the US economy is still flexible and not a risk of immediate recession.
- At the same time, Mark Jandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in Newsweek, warned that steps like tariff war, government jobs, and exile can give a big blow to the economy.
- Paul Aishworth, the main North American economist of Capital Economics, is very positive about the situation. He has said that after contraction in GDP in the first quarter, there may be an increase of 4.5% in the second quarter. But quoting Reuters as saying, KPMG’s chief economist Daini Swonk said that decrease in demand and uncertainty in investment could bring recession by the beginning of next year.
What will be the effect of decline in America in India?
The decline in the US economy can have a direct and indirect impact on India. According to India Today, Trump’s tariff policies have increased instability in global trade, which can affect export-dependent countries like India. India has bilateral trade with the US, including areas such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. If American demand is low, Indian exports may be affected.
If the US goes into a recession, the decrease in global demand may affect India’s GDP growth, which is currently around 6-7%. The Indian stock market, which depends on global signals, has already fallen victim to instability in recent times.
Loss of $ 4 trillion: How big is this shock?
This loss of $ 4 trillion is larger than the total GDP of many countries. Based on the World Bank’s 2023 data, it exceeds the joint economies of Australia ($ 1.7 trillion), South Korea ($ 1.7 trillion), and Mexico ($ 1.8 trillion). Such a big loss in a day is a major setback for the global economy. The American economy is currently standing at a delicate turn. The loss of $ 4 trillion, tariff war, and Trump’s policies have increased the possibility of recession.
Also read-: India shore with Trump’s tariff claim, said- no compromise right now
